Crime Numbers Under BNP Govt: Fewer Murders, But Overall Crime Goes Up

Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed dismissed critical reports from watchdog groups while speaking to reporters at the Secretariat in Dhaka on June 8, 2026, saying, "TIB prepares its reports based on newspaper clippings. It does not conduct investigations or verify every incident before making statements. TIB is not a government agency. For the actual picture, one should rely on crime statistics maintained by the police and the Ministry of Home Affairs".

His most recent comments just yesterday, on August 17, 2026, telling reporters after a meeting at the Secretariat: "The people of the country will assess whether they are satisfied with the law and order situation. However, from the government's perspective, we can certainly say that there has been visible improvement over the last six months". He added, "We have completed only six months. During this period, we have carried out many reform initiatives, and you have seen several commendable initiatives by the law enforcement agencies".

Since the Home Minister himself pointed to police data as the real source of truth, we did exactly that. We pulled the official monthly crime statistics published by the Bangladesh Police and compared five months of data under the current BNP government with the same five months under the previous interim government. Here is what the numbers actually show.

Comparing March to July 2026 (the first five months of the BNP government) with March to July 2025 (the same five months under the interim government), murders and armed robberies have gone down. But overall crime cases have jumped, and crimes against women and children keep climbing month after month.

The Big Picture: More Crime Cases Overall

Let's start with the number that matters most. The police registered 88,217 crime cases from March to July 2026 under the BNP government. That's about 9,000 more cases than the 79,209 registered from March to July 2025, under the interim government. That's an 11% jump. On average, police are now logging about 1,800 more cases every month than before.

The worst month was June 2026, when 18,820 cases were filed, the highest of any single month recorded in either government's term.

This chart tracks total registered crime cases month by month for both governments. The BNP line (March to July 2026) consistently sits above the interim government's line (March to July 2025) for most of the period and shows a clear upward climb that peaks in June 2026 before easing slightly in July.

Good News: Fewer Murders and Robberies

Here's where the BNP government does better. Comparing the same five months (March to July) of both years, an average of 308 murders was reported each month from March to July 2026 under BNP, down from 340 per month during March to July 2025 under the interim government. That's a 9% drop. In simple terms, that means about 10 murders a day under BNP now, compared to about 11 a day under the interim government.

Robberies fell too, from 163 a month (March to July 2025) to 154 a month (March to July 2026), a 5% drop. And dacoity (armed group robbery) fell the most sharply, down 21%, from 56 cases a month to 45, comparing the same two five-month periods.

This chart compares monthly murder counts side by side for both governments. The interim government's line (March to July 2025) shows a steady, almost uninterrupted climb, ending at its highest point in July 2025. The BNP line (March to July 2026) moves up and down instead, but never reaches that same peak.

Bad News: Break-Ins and Theft are Rising

While violent crime eased a bit, crimes against property got worse. Comparing March to July 2025 with March to July 2026, burglary (break-ins) rose 18%, from 238 cases a month to 281.

Theft went up too, by about 7%, from 783 cases a month to 835. So while fewer people are being killed, more homes and shops are being robbed.

This table shows the five-month averages for eight different crime categories, comparing the interim government (March to July 2025) and the BNP government (March to July 2026) side by side. It shows at a glance where BNP has improved (murder, robbery, dacoity) and where things have gotten worse (burglary, theft, and total cases).

The Real Alarm: Crimes Against Women and Children Keep Rising

This is the most worrying trend in the entire report. When BNP first took office in March 2026, 1,485 cases of violence against women and children were reported. By July 2026, that number had jumped to 2,336, a 57% rise in just five months. That July 2026 figure is the highest of any single month recorded under either government.

Looking at the five-month averages, BNP's March to July 2026 period (1,997 cases per month) is only slightly lower than the interim government's March to July 2025 period (2,052 cases per month), a difference of just 3%. But that average hides the real story: from March to July 2025, under the interim government, the numbers stayed fairly steady, ranging only between 1,933 and 2,097 each month. From March to July 2026, under BNP, the number keeps climbing, with no sign of slowing.

This chart plots monthly cases of violence against women and children for both governments. The interim government's line (March to July 2025) stays flat within a narrow range throughout. The BNP line (March to July 2026) starts lower but rises sharply and steadily each month, ending well above its starting point and the interim government's highest point.

Murder Trends: Two Very Different Patterns

From March to July 2025, under the interim government, murders kept rising almost every single month, from 316 in March to a high of 362 in July, a 15% increase with basically no relief. That July 2025 figure of 362 is actually the highest murder count recorded in either government's term.

From March to July 2026, under BNP, the numbers bounced up and down rather than following a clear direction: 317 in March, dropping to 288 in April, climbing back to 326 in June, then easing to 298 in July. Even at its worst month, BNP's murder count never reached the interim government's July 2025 peak.

Kidnappings: Barely any Difference, but Different Patterns

Comparing the five-month averages, kidnapping numbers are almost the same under both governments, about 88 to 90 cases a month either way, less than a 2% difference. But look more closely, and you'll see different stories: from March to July 2025, under the interim government, kidnapping cases suddenly spiked to 109 in July. From March to July 2026, under BNP, kidnapping cases actually fell steadily each month, from 102 in March down to just 72 by July.

Where Crimes Are Happening Most

No matter which government is in power, the Dhaka and Chittagong regions have consistently reported the most crime cases in the country throughout both the March to July 2025 and March to July 2026 periods. This is likely because these areas are the most crowded and urbanised, not because of anything either government did differently.

What Officials Are Saying

Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed’s position throughout this period has remained consistent: the government’s own numbers show improvement, and outside assessments should be treated with skepticism. In parliament in late June 2026, he said Bangladesh’s law and order situation had seen a “historic improvement” compared with the last 10 to 15 years, particularly 2025, stating, “After the current government assumed office, we are in a historically improved position in most indicators.” On the rise in reported rape cases specifically, he told parliament, “The only area where the figures have increased is the recording of rape cases,” attributing this to victims now feeling more able to come forward rather than an actual rise in incidents.

Police officials have separately defended the murder numbers, saying most killings come from personal disputes, family fights, or money issues, not political violence. Opposition lawmakers, including independent MP Rumeen Farhana, have publicly challenged the government's claims of improvement in parliament, especially since the government's own data shows an 11% rise in total crime cases across the five-month period.

The Bottom Line

Taken together, the numbers from March to July 2025 versus March to July 2026 show that no single government has fully solved Bangladesh's law and order problems.

For ordinary citizens, the message is clear: some threats have eased, but new and rising dangers demand urgent attention from the current administration.

Lastly, one more thing worth noting: some of the murder numbers each month include old, previously unsolved cases that are only now being officially logged, not just brand new crimes.

This means the raw monthly numbers should be read with a little caution.