Criticise the Tariffs, Lose the Job
One economist was in line to run the IMF's research arm. He warned that Trump's tariffs would raise prices, and the job went to someone else.
In a Nutshell
- Ricardo Reis did not get the IMF's top economics job. He was the front-runner, and the Fund passed him over.
- The reason, according to sources who spoke to the Financial Times: he had criticised Donald Trump's tariffs.
- Reis, a Portuguese economist teaching at the London School of Economics, had warned that the tariffs would push up prices in the United States and feed inflation.
- The job went instead to Silvana Tenreyro in July 2026 — a former Bank of England rate-setter and fellow LSE professor, described as less critical of the Trump administration.
- Reis declined to comment. The IMF would not discuss the decision, saying only that its selection was "rigorous and competitive" and that it was confidential.
Context
The IMF's chief economist runs the Fund's research department and signs the World Economic Outlook, the forecast that moves markets and shapes advice to 191 member countries. It is one of the most influential jobs in the profession. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas has held it since 2022.
The Fund is headquartered in Washington, and the United States is its largest shareholder, with roughly 16% of the votes, enough on its own to block the biggest decisions, which need 85% approval. No member country has a formal say over who is hired. But the Fund has always had to manage the government sitting closest to it.
Why It Matters
The IMF's economists are meant to tell governments what they do not want to hear, and most governments on the receiving end are small and borrowing. If the largest shareholder can quietly shape who holds the pen, that bargain changes. The asymmetry is the problem.
Nothing here is proven. The reporting rests on unnamed sources, Reis has said nothing, and the Fund cites confidentiality rather than issuing a denial. But institutions run on belief, and the belief that a tariff critic was quietly disqualified travels faster than any denial.
Meanwhile, the underlying question of whether tariffs raise consumer prices is being answered by the American economy itself, regardless of who is or is not allowed to write it up.
What We Think
The IMF's forecasts shape national budgets, loan terms and headlines in almost every country, so a question mark over who writes them affects everyone.
For countries that borrow, attacking the IMF in public feels satisfying but is expensive, because it remains the lender of last resort; working quietly with other member states endures longer than any one US administration.
And do not over-read a single hire: one appointment is not proof of capture, and the honest test is whether the analysis holds up, not who signed it.