Egypt may join regional defense pact with Turkey, Pakistan, & Saudi Arabia, says Turkey's FM
In a Nutshell:
- Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan said that Egypt could join the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement after Türkiye and Egypt resolve technical issues.
- Türkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed the pact on August 7, agreeing to treat an armed attack on one member as an attack on all three.
- Fidan said the pact follows NATO Article 5 in principle, with members deciding through consultations whether an attack requires intelligence, logistics, ammunition or military units.
- President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wants more regional countries to join, while the three founding members plan a ministers' committee and permanent Saudi based secretariat.
- The pact follows nearly three years of negotiations and comes as Iranian missile attacks have heightened security concerns across the Gulf, although Fidan says Iran is not its target.
Why it matters
The pact has been three years in the making, with negotiations starting well before the current US-Iran war and the recent Iranian missile attacks on US bases in Gulf states. This indicates that Türkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are entering into a longer term security arrangement instead of immediately responding to the threat of Iranian attacks. At the same time, this does come at an interesting time as the pact is no longer in vaccum as it was during the initial negotiations. It has been formalised in the midst of increasing regional instability that has been escalating since the start of the war in February. Its promise to treat an attack on one member as an attack on all three gives the arrangement immediate relevance if Iran targets Saudi Arabia, or if another attack threatens any member's territory. Now, Egypt seems to be on the brink of joining as another member in this alliance. This would add another major regional military and extend the arrangement into North Africa and the Red Sea, while also building on the R4 cooperation already established among Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt.
What we think
Fidan's comparison with NATO's Article 5 is significant because the basic promise is similar: an attack on one member is treated as an attack on all. The Makkah pact gives members more room to decide what that support looks like, from intelligence and logistics to ammunition or troops, but that still creates a serious commitment if Iran attacks Saudi Arabia. Pakistan and Türkiye would then have to decide how far they are willing to get involved, potentially turning an attack on one country into a wider confrontation. Egypt's possible entry would extend that network further into the Red Sea and Suez Canal, adding another major military power to the calculation. The alliance could make attacks less attractive by raising the cost of attacking a member, but if deterrence fails, the same structure could make it easier for a regional conflict to draw in more countries.