Israel’s President Selects Eisenkot over Netanyahu for Next Government
Israeli President Isaac Herzog picked former army chief Eisenkot as the next Prime Minister, who received more endorsements than Netanyahu, including from Arab-led parties. Eisenkot has 28 days, with the possibility of a 14-day extension, to form a coalition of at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 days.
In a Nutshell
- After the October 27 election in which neither Netanyahu’s Likud Party nor Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar Party managed to secure a majority bloc, Herzog consulted political parties this week to make the decision on who would lead the next government.
- Eisenkot was the President’s obvious choice, given that he received 67 endorsements compared to Netanyahu, who received only 46.
- Until Herzog told Eisenkot of his decision on Saturday, members of Arab-led parties were concerned that the president might propose a power-sharing agreement through a national unity government.
- While Eisenkot has the confidence of lawmakers and members of the Arab-led parties, he has ruled out forming a coalition with them, which would otherwise have given him a 67-seat bloc.
- If he decides to form a coalition with the two ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas, it would give him 61 seats- the exact minimum needed out of the 120 seats in the Knesset for a majority.
- It is also possible for Eisenkot to form a government with fewer than 61 seats in the case of a parliamentary confidence vote.
- Eisenkot has 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension, to form a coalition for the next government. If he fails, Herzog can nominate a second candidate. If the second nominee also fails, a parliamentary majority can nominate a third candidate who will be given 14 days. If all nominations fail, Israel will call a new election within 90 days, during which Netanyahu will remain caretaker Prime Minister.
Context
Benjamin Netanyahu has dominated Israeli politics for decades, serving as prime minister from 1996 to 1999, 2009 to 2021 and again since 2022. Eisenkot, a former Army chief who was once part of Netanyahu’s war cabinet for the eight months after Israel began its genocide on Gaza in 2022, now presents a serious challenge to Netanyahu’s continued hold on power. He has far more political endorsements than Netanyahu, with 67 endorsements while the former has only 46.
Arab-led parties have played no small hand in Eisenkot’s advancement. Even though Eisenkot has already ruled them out for a coalition, Arab party members would much rather see him in government than Netanyahu. Ahmad Tibi, a senior member of the Joint List, said the parties prioritised removing Netanyahu and his far-right allies, Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
Founder of the centrist Yashar party, Eisenkot’s campaign promises include an independent investigation into the October 7 attacks. This will be welcome to the thousands of Israelis who rallied just three days before the elections, seeking an independent state commission of inquiry from the Netanyahu government, which failed to deliver on that front. On Palestine, Eisenkot has opposed full Palestinian statehood, instead favouring an arrangement under overriding Israeli security control.
Hours before Herzog announced his decision, Netanyahu warned that an opposition government backed by Arab-led parties would threaten Israel’s existence. He said, “Such a government, dependent on Islamists, will dismantle the state of Israel from within, as is happening in European countries, and far worse than that.”
Why It Matters
Could this be the end of the Netanyahu era? Possibly. His aggressive political campaign against Eisenkot on the election trail and his warning just hours before Herzog’s announcement show how seriously he views the possibility of losing power. If Eisenkot succeeds in forming a coalition within the next 28 days, it would bring an end to Netanyahu’s nearly 19-and-a-half years in power across three terms.
Netanyahu being unseated could also open up a window of opportunity for accountability over his government's actions in Gaza. The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against him in November 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity, including starvation as a method of warfare, murder and persecution. While his removal from office would not automatically bring him before the court, it could change the political circumstances surrounding the warrant's enforcement.
At home, Netanyahu has also been resisting his corruption trial, which began in 2020 over charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. His official duties as prime minister have repeatedly been cited in requests to delay proceedings. Losing office could remove some of the political and scheduling constraints surrounding the trial and allow the proceedings to move forward.
What We Think
Even if Eisenkot succeeds in ending Netanyahu’s long tenure, it is unlikely there will be significant change on the matter of Palestinian statehood, as Palestinian sovereignty remains at odds with the Zionist conception of the land as the Jewish national homeland.
Despite his current stance, Eisenkot might yet reconsider forming a coalition with Arab parties, since he would need their numbers to secure a Knesset majority. The hope is that pressure from the Arab-led parties backing him could at least bring temporary relief to Palestinians’ living conditions.