Are We Ready for the J-10CE Deal — Or Are We Buying a Problem?
Bangladesh is set to spend $2.2 billion on Chinese fighter jets, but questions remain about readiness, cost, and whether this makes Dhaka too dependent on Beijing.
In a Nutshell:
- At today's press briefing, PM's Information Adviser Dr. Zahed Ur Rahman said Bangladesh is negotiating to buy J-10CE fighter jets from China, calling it proof of the country's "second independence" in defense decision-making.
- He noted a Chinese J-10 reportedly shot down an Indian Rafale during the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, calling this real combat proof of the jet's capability.
- Draft agreements for the J-10CE and attack helicopters have already been prepared by a negotiation committee.
- Bangladesh is negotiating to buy 20-24 J-10CE jets in a government-to-government deal worth roughly $2.2 billion, or about Tk 27,060 crore.
- Payments for the deal are planned to be spread out over ten years, continuing until fiscal year 2035-36.
- The J-10CE is a 4.5-generation jet with an AESA radar, PL-15 long-range missiles, and a top speed near Mach 2.
- Roughly $820 million of the total budget goes toward pilot training, spare parts, and new ground infrastructure, not just the jets themselves.
- If completed, Bangladesh would become only the second country after Pakistan to fly this exact jet.
- India's foreign ministry has confirmed it is "monitoring" the talks, alongside a separate China-backed economic corridor proposal.
- Indian security analysts warn the deal could pressure the strategically sensitive Siliguri Corridor connecting India's northeast to its mainland.
Context
Bangladesh's air force is old and needs upgrading. After the 2024 political change, Dhaka has moved closer to China for cheap, capable weapons instead of expensive Western jets. Pakistan's Chinese-made J-10C reportedly beat an Indian Rafale in real combat in 2025, which boosted Chinese jets' reputation worldwide. Bangladesh now wants the same jet, framing it as a sovereign defense upgrade under "Forces Goal 2030". Critics say the deal could lock Dhaka into long-term reliance on China for spares, training, and future upgrades.
Why it matters
This is not just a shopping list. It is a strategic bet with long-term consequences. On readiness, Bangladesh does not currently have the trained pilots, technicians, or maintenance infrastructure to run 4.5-generation jets alone. This is exactly why nearly $820 million of the deal is set aside for training and ground infrastructure rather than aircraft. That gap means the air force will lean on Chinese support systems for years before it can operate independently, and any friction with Beijing during that window could directly affect operational readiness. Regionally, this shifts the airpower balance in the Bay of Bengal. It closes part of the capability gap with India's air force and raises concern in Delhi over the sensitive Siliguri "Chicken's Neck" corridor. China already supplies over 70% of Bangladesh's military hardware, so this deal deepens an existing dependency rather than starting a new one. Because financing is structured as long-term debt through 2035-36, some analysts compare the risk to Sri Lanka's and Pakistan's debt-trap experiences with Chinese loans. On cost trade-offs, $2.2 billion is a large sum for a country simultaneously battling a gas crisis, factory closures, and fertilizer shortages. Critics argue this money could instead fund healthcare, education, or skills development, areas Bangladesh "can ill afford" to shortchange. For the same budget, Bangladesh could have bought fewer but longer-range Western jets like the Rafale, or diversified across multiple suppliers to avoid single-source dependency. Dhaka chose China specifically because the J-10CE is roughly half the price of Western jets and has proven itself in real combat against a Western aircraft. Diplomatically, the timing is sensitive. India-Bangladesh relations are already strained since 2024, and buying the exact jet Pakistan used against India will likely deepen New Delhi's threat perception and complicate any diplomatic reset, regardless of Dhaka's insistence that this is purely a sovereign defense decision. In short, this single procurement touches defense capability, economic priorities, and regional diplomacy all at once, making it far more than a routine military purchase.
What we think
The core question is not whether the J-10CE is a good jet. It clearly performed well in real combat. The $2.2 billion jet deal trades immediate economic needs for long-term China dependency. We lack trained pilots and technicians, so we will rely on China for spares, training, and repairs for years, a reliance that becomes a weakness if relations sour. Single-supplier deals give China leverage in future disputes, unlike diversified partnerships. The deal also strains already-tense India ties, since it involves the same jet Pakistan used against India in combat. Historically, powerful nations selling advanced jets often supply export variants with certain exclusive features stripped out or customised down for the buyer country. If Bangladesh receives such a downgraded version of the J-10CE, how much real benefit does the country actually gain from the purchase, and will China continue supplying the high-end missiles the jet is designed to carry on an ongoing basis? True independence requires operating without foreign goodwill, something this deal does not yet deliver.