Jordan and Syria Agree to Joint Probe After Deadly Cross Border Strikes

Context

On October 23, masked gunmen opened fire during a funeral procession at a Greek Orthodox church in Hamoud village in Jordan's Karak governorate, killing nine people and injuring dozens. Such attacks are rare in Jordan, particularly against its Christian minority, which makes up around 2 to 3% of the population. Karak is known for its longstanding coexistence between Christians and Muslims, with residents taking pride in their interfaith solidarity. ISIS later claimed responsibility for the attack.

This is not the first time that ISIS has been linked to such attacks in the Karak governorate. In December 2016, ISIS gunmen took over Karak’s Crusader-era castle and opened fire on security forces and civilians, killing 10 people, including security officers and a Canadian tourist, before Jordanian forces killed the attackers. In the latest attack, Jordanian security forces pursued two suspects who fled the scene and subsequently arrested three people, including two brothers and their brother-in-law.

In the immediate aftermath of the incident, King Abdullah II vowed to respond with an “iron fist” against those responsible, saying Jordan would not tolerate attempts to divide its people through violence. In keeping with this statement, Jordan launched airstrikes on sites in southern Syria on October 26, which it said were linked to groups operating across the border. In a subsequent phone call with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said the strikes targeted ISIS sites based on intelligence about confirmed threats and imminent attacks against Jordan.

Why It Matters

In the Jordanian government’s attempt to respond to the church attack with retaliatory airstrikes in Syria, seven civilians have been killed, including three children. The Syrian Foreign Ministry said it had not been informed about the operation Jordan carried out early Tuesday to root out terrorists in the Deraa and Suwayda regions.

While it is possible that Jordan could face future attacks, as claimed by Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, what is concerning is the lack of coordination with the Syrian government. In a phone call with al-Shaibani, Safadi expressed “deep regret and sorrow” over the civilian deaths resulting from Jordan’s strikes. The two ministers agreed to establish a joint security committee to investigate the strikes and develop mechanisms for intelligence sharing and coordination. However, the damage has already been done: Jordan’s sudden strikes have resulted in the loss of civilian lives.

Notably, this is not the first time Jordan has struck civilians in Syria. Since 2023, Jordan’s cross-border military operations, meant to target suspected drug and arms smugglers in Syria, have also caused civilian deaths. In January 2024, Human Rights Watch demanded accountability after Jordanian strikes killed women and children in Syria, saying that civilian deaths required scrutiny regardless of the threat posed by drug smuggling. Its criticism is relevant to the latest operation, which Jordan says was intended to prevent imminent attacks against the kingdom.

What We Think

Jordan’s security concerns following the deadly church attack and ISIS’s claim of responsibility are understandable. However, the possibility of future attacks does not remove the need for coordination with the Syrian government, particularly when military action across the border risks civilian lives.

With seven civilians reportedly killed, including three children, the strikes have come at a cost to the very security and stability Jordan says it is trying to protect. Given that Jordan’s previous operations in Syria have also caused civilian deaths, accountability and coordination with Damascus are necessary if the kingdom is to prevent future attacks without repeating the same consequences.