Can Myanmar’s Min Aung Hlaing’s Diplomatic Comeback Put the Rohingya Return Back on the Table?
Myanmar’s coup leader-turned-president, Min Aung Hlaing, is rebuilding ties with Southeast Asian neighbours even as the civil war continues. His diplomatic comeback raises questions about ASEAN’s approach to the crisis and the prospects for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh to return home safely.
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In a Nutshell
- Malaysia hosted Min Aung Hlaing in September, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim pledging to help reintegrate Myanmar into ASEAN.
- Anwar said the visit did not amount to recognition of Myanmar’s government. Malaysia also said Myanmar was ready to take its nationals back. Min Aung Hlaing said navy ships could assist when the weather permits.
- Malaysia hosts about 193,000 people from Myanmar, most of them Rohingya, according to Al Jazeera.
- Min Aung Hlaing has also visited Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos since becoming president in April. Myanmar’s main opposition parties were excluded from the election that preceded his appointment.
- Myanmar’s civil war is in its fifth year. Monitoring groups cited by Al Jazeera estimate up to 100,000 people have been killed and at least 3.5 million displaced.
- ASEAN had barred Min Aung Hlaing from high-level meetings over his failure to implement its Five-Point Consensus for ending violence and pursuing dialogue.
Context
Min Aung Hlaing seized power in Myanmar’s 2021 coup and became president in April, following an election that excluded major opposition parties. His recent visit to Malaysia is an effort to restore regional ties. He has also travelled to Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos.
Malaysia’s welcome comes despite ASEAN’s earlier restrictions on his participation in high-level meetings, imposed over the military government’s failure to follow the bloc’s Five-Point Consensus. Anwar has said the visit does not mean Malaysia recognises Myanmar’s government, while also backing its reintegration into ASEAN.
These talks are happening while attacks continue in Rakhine State, and millions of people are still displaced. Thus, this conflict directly affects Bangladesh, which hosts more than one million Rohingya refugees who fled violence and persecution in Myanmar.
Why It Matters
Min Aung Hlaing’s return to diplomacy directly affects Bangladesh, which hosts more than one million Rohingya refugees. Malaysia’s earlier discussions with Myanmar have led to several claims about repatriation. These include a reported plan to return 5,000 Rohingya from Malaysia and another proposal involving 300,000 Rohingya from Bangladesh. However, Myanmar has not publicly explained who would return, what legal status they would receive or what safety protection they would have, and neither of those plans has been implemented.
This record is important to look into because Myanmar has made similar promises before without creating safe conditions for return. Attacks are still happening in Rakhine State. On September 28, an air strike on a market reportedly killed about 50 people. In this situation, a return plan agreed in Kuala Lumpur is not an answer to this much-asked question about Rohingya repatriation, especially considering Myanmar’s earlier records.
What We Think
Malaysia’s interest in repatriation is understandable, while Myanmar’s has continued in the same pattern till now. They make a promise, gain diplomatic goodwill and then leave the conditions unresolved.
Bangladesh has not yet had a direct conversation with Min Aung Hlaing, and it is better not to push it to accept a return plan based solely on assurances. It is important that any repatriation is voluntary, safe and dignified, with citizenship, security and a clear role for the Rohingya in deciding their future. Until Myanmar demonstrates those conditions on the ground, there remains a risk that diplomatic outreach will become another round of promises rather than a solution.