Stocks Are Up Ahead of Ramadan. The Fight is Now Over Price
A senior commerce ministry official says demand for oil, sugar, pulses, dates, chicken and eggs typically doubles or more during the month. Chickpeas are imported entirely, and about 80% of lentil demand is met through imports.
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In a Nutshell
- Bangladesh imported 823,000 tonnes of edible oil between 1 July and 25 October, up from 705,000 tonnes a year earlier. The Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission presented the figures at a Ministry of Commerce meeting on 26 October.
- Sugar imports rose by 153,000 tonnes to 687,000 tonnes. Chickpeas jumped to 82,000 tonnes from 12,000, lentils rose by 64,000 tonnes to 122,000 tonnes, and dates climbed to 11,000 tonnes from 4,000.
- Importers also opened letters of credit, a bank’s promise to pay foreign suppliers, for 805,000 tonnes of edible oil, 810,000 tonnes of sugar and 138,000 tonnes of chickpeas.
- Trading Corporation of Bangladesh data show egg prices fell 7.62% over a month to Tk 47-50 per four. Broiler chicken eased to Tk 180 to 190 a kilogram, and bottled soybean oil held at Tk 204 a litre.
- Edible oil traders asked for a Tk 15-per-litre rise, citing higher global raw material and transport costs. The ministry made no decision.
- Date importers said duties and taxes come to around 55% and want them based on actual quality and price. The ministry said it would take up the issue of duty relief with the National Board of Revenue.
Context
Ramadan may begin around 8 February 2027. A senior commerce ministry official says demand for oil, sugar, pulses, dates, chicken and eggs typically doubles or more during the month. Chickpeas are imported entirely, and about 80% of lentil demand is met through imports.
The current government took office on 17 February 2026, days before the last Ramadan, and Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir said at the time that there had been no opportunity to prepare anything special. This is its first Ramadan with time to plan.
Why It Matters
The import figures support the ministry’s upbeat tone, but they do not settle the question of price. In early September, the commerce secretary at the time said there was no edible oil shortage, even though one-litre bottles had vanished from shops in Dhaka. The ministry then approved a Tk 5 rise to Tk 204, half of what traders wanted, and the bottles came back.
Some cost pressure is real. Global oil and chickpea prices are up, freight is dearer, and food inflation reached 7.22% in September. But pulse traders say large players are squeezing out smaller lentil mills. That sits awkwardly with the government’s promise to break syndicates.
What We Think
Strong import figures leave the ministry with fewer excuses if prices jump in February. The test is whether it can judge refiners’ cost claims on its own evidence, using the tariff commission’s import data, rather than giving way once shelves empty, as it did in September. Dates show a different weakness.
Duty concessions already approved have not reached importers, even though officials say the internal work is done. Getting them in place before shipments peak is a basic test of delivery. The concentration warning matters most. A government that promised to dismantle syndicates is now hearing, at its own meeting, that big traders are pushing out small ones.