China Confirms Discussions on Track for Historic Xi-Trump-Putin Meeting

Context 

The proposed meeting would bring together the presidents of the world's three major powers, although their interests remain at odds. China is hosting this year's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' summit, which includes both the US and Russia. While Beijing has confirmed that discussions are underway, experts say the three leaders are unlikely to discuss anything substantive because of their competing interests.

For China, the meeting comes as it tries to maintain a fragile trade truce with Washington, which is due to expire in January. Trump is expected to meet Xi for the third time this year, but tensions remain over China's commitments to purchase US agricultural products and supply rare earths and other critical minerals. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer recently urged Beijing to take concrete steps to fulfil those commitments. Hosting a meeting between the three leaders would also allow China to project a clean PR image of its relationship with the US, even as trade disagreements remain unresolved.

Meanwhile, Putin has been pushing for the meeting and is keen to discuss the war in Ukraine. However, neither Zelenskyy nor any Ukrainian representatives are expected to be present, meaning any discussion about the war and Russia's invasion would take place without Ukraine at the table. Trump has also expressed interest in discussing nuclear arms control, although his advisers have reportedly cautioned him against allowing Ukraine to dominate the talks.

Why It Matters 

If the meeting happens, it would be historic, bringing together the presidents of the world's three major powers. However, it could amount to little more than a photo opportunity for all three leaders, with each looking to gain something from the gathering without necessarily addressing the issues dividing them. China wants to maintain an image of stable relations with Washington, while Putin stands to gain the most from appearing alongside the US and Chinese presidents and getting an opportunity to push Russia's position on Ukraine. With no Ukrainian representatives expected, any discussion of the war would also happen without the country at the centre of the conflict having a say.

Trump, meanwhile, could use the meeting to boost his deflated image in the crushing aftermath of his party's loss to the Democrats for Congress in the November midterm elections. He has shown an interest in appearing alongside authoritarian leaders, with former US official Danny Russel describing his “crush on authoritarian strongmen”. A high-profile gathering with Xi and Putin would give him that opportunity, even if it produces little beyond the image of the three leaders together.

What We Think 

As several analysts have suggested, the meeting is likely to be little more than a photo-op, with each leader more interested in projecting an image that reassures their own country and serves their political interests. The meeting would be historic from the outside, but with no shared agenda or willingness to address their differences, it is unlikely to achieve much beyond the appearance of diplomatic cooperation.