US Warns Allies to Prepare for Renewed Iran Strikes After Midterms
The US has warned Middle Eastern allies to prepare for possible renewed strikes on Iran after November 3 midterm elections, as well as Iranian retaliation against energy facilities and other critical infrastructure. With Saudi Arabia already facing Houthi attacks and regional countries seeking ways to contain the conflict, the warnings add urgency to efforts to prepare for a wider escalation.
Reading
In a Nutshell:
- US officials have told several Middle Eastern countries and regional allies to prepare for possible renewed military action against Iran after the November 3 elections, along with potential Iranian retaliation, according to two diplomats briefed on the warnings.
- The US has told allies a new round of strikes could last several days, while regional officials fear retaliation by Iran and allied armed groups could prolong the fighting. They have been urged to prepare for attacks on energy facilities and other critical infrastructure.
- Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye held talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on October 26 amid the threat of renewed US strikes and increasing Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Egypt has separately authorised possible defensive assistance to Saudi Arabia if requested.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran was still pursuing diplomacy through mediators and reviewing proposals for a ceasefire, after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal last month. The United Arab Emirates has also called for political solutions to prevent a return to full scale operations.
- The US has reinforced its military presence in the region, deploying the USS Theodore Roosevelt and amphibious ships carrying roughly 9,000 troops to the Persian Gulf. The Pentagon estimates the war has cost US taxpayers $47.1 billion, while rising fuel prices have become a liability for Republicans ahead of the elections.
Context
Trump has repeatedly threatened renewed strikes after the November 3 elections, while also claiming the eight month old war could end within weeks. He has made a lasting end to the conflict conditional on Iran never obtaining a nuclear weapon. The White House and US officials declined to comment on the latest warnings, and it remains unclear how soon the military could resume operations. The threat comes as Saudi Arabia is already facing attacks from Iran aligned Houthi forces in Yemen, which have targeted airports and oil infrastructure in recent weeks. Saudi led attacks on Houthi held territory have followed. On October 26, Mecca Pact members -Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye- held talks with Tehran as Riyadh has started to seek greater military support against the Houthis. Egypt has also authorised President Abdel Fattah el Sisi to take necessary measures to support Saudi Arabia’s defence if requested, with Cairo stressing that any assistance would focus on protecting Saudi territory and borders.
Why it matters
Regional countries are preparing for a conflict that could spread further even if a renewed US operation lasts only a few days. Saudi Arabia faces the immediate threat of Houthi attacks, while retaliation against energy facilities could affect the wider Gulf and add to the economic costs of the war. The Tehran meeting and Egypt’s offer of possible defensive assistance show how countries are trying to protect themselves and contain the fighting before it escalates again. However, these preparations do not resolve the dispute between Washington and Tehran. Iran is still pursuing a diplomatic route through mediators, but Trump has rejected its previous proposal and continues to threaten strikes. Regional governments are therefore having to prepare for military escalation while keeping diplomatic channels open.
What we think
While a few countries in the region, namely the Mecca Pact, are seeking to contain the war, they have limited ability to settle the underlying US Iran dispute. If Trump resumes strikes after the midterm elections, they may have to deal with the consequences of an escalation they have been trying to prevent.